Imagine a project where:

• The analysis consists of many factors.
• A high level of uncertainty exists about the outcome.
• Analysts or decision makers hold competing views.

How do you decide which analyst or opinion is right (or at least, more right)? Resist the urge to determine that your own (or your first) hypothesis should be the focus of your analysis by using the Multiple Hypothesis Generation structured analytic technique.

A hypothesis, in broadest terms, is a potential explanation or conclusion that is to be tested by collecting and presenting evidence. It is a declarative statement that has not been established as true – an “educated guess” based on observation to be supported or refuted by more observation or through experimentation.

Generate multiple hypotheses at the start of your project to avoid these common pitfalls:

• Coming to a premature closure.
• Being overly influenced by first impressions.
• Selecting the first answer that appears “good enough.”
• Focusing on a narrow range of alternatives that represent marginal, not radical, change.
• Opting for what elicits the most agreement or is desired by the boss.
• Selecting the alternative that avoids a previous error or replicates a past success.

A good hypothesis: is written as a statement (not a question); is based on observations and knowledge; is testable and falsifiable; predicts the anticipated results clearly; and contains a dependent and independent variable.

Here is a simple way to begin a Multiple Hypothesis Generation  exercise:

1. Gather a diverse group together to review the available evidence and explanations for a given issue, activity, or behavior.
2. Ask each member of the group to write down one to three alternative explanations or hypotheses.
3. Collect, consolidate, and display the results.
4. Employ group and individual brainstorming techniques to identify key forces and factors.
5. Aggregate the identified forces and factors into affinity groups, and label each group.
6. Use problem restatement and “considering the opposite” to develop new ideas.
7. Update the list of alternative hypotheses, striving to keep them mutually exclusive.
8. Select the most promising hypotheses.

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Multiple Hypotheses Generator®

Globalytica’s Multiple Hypotheses Generator® can help analysts avoid traps and biases frequently faced at the start of the analytic process or when a hypothesis has become the “common wisdom.” This should be an integral part of any rigorous analytic process; it helps analysts avoid surprise if and when that common wisdom turns out to be wrong. The Multiple Hypotheses Generator® provides a structured way to generate a mutually exclusive set of hypotheses for explaining a particular issue, activity, or behavior. It decreases the likelihood of a key hypothesis being overlooked.

The Multiple Hypotheses Generator® works by using a permutation tree to create a set of hypotheses consisting of each possible combination of the analyst’s answers to the “Who”, “What”, “When”, “Where”, “Why”, and “How” questions. Here is a graphical representation of how the permutations are created in the Multiple Hypotheses Generator®.

A Multiple Hypothesis Generation exercise is possible to do by hand, but using the Multiple Hypotheses Generator® software makes this process more efficient because it creates and sorts the permutations for you.

Learn More > Globalytica’s Multiple Hypothesis Generator®.

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

During the summer months, we keep our doors closed to stifling heat, mosquitoes, and other pests. Similarly, when we perform analysis, we should strive to keep our mental doors closed to unsupported assumptions. The May edition of The Analytic Insider kicked off our summer series of the five most popular Structured Analytic Techniques (SAT) used in analysis today. This month’s SAT – Key Assumptions Check – teaches you how to leave your assumptions at the door.

Key Assumptions Check is an exercise to explicitly list and challenge the key working suppositions that underlie the basic analysis.

Key Assumptions Checks safeguard analysts against several classic mental mistakes, including the tendencies to overdraw conclusions, weight first impressions too heavily, and fail to factor into their thinking the absence of evidence. Preparing a written list of your working assumptions at the beginning of your project will help you:

• Achieve a better understanding of the most important dynamics at play.
• Gain a broader perspective and stimulate new thinking about the issue.
• Discover hidden relationships and links between factors.
• Identify what developments would call a key assumption into question.
• Avoid surprise should new information render old assumptions invalid.

The Method

The process of conducting a Key Assumptions Check is straightforward in concept, but can be challenging in practice. Statistically speaking, about one in four assumptions collapses upon careful examination. To conduct your Key Assumptions Check, gather a small group of individuals who are working the issue as well as a few “outsiders” who can share other perspectives.

Participants should provide their list of assumptions on 3×5 cards. Next:

• Record all of the assumptions on a whiteboard or easel.
• Elicit additional assumptions, using various devices to prod participants’ thinking, like the journalists’ questions: Who, What, When, Where, Why and How?
  • Use of phrases such as “will always,” will never,” or “would have to be” suggests that an idea is not being challenged. Perhaps it should be!
  • Use of phrases such as “based on” or “generally the case” suggests that a challengeable assumption is being made.
• After developing a full set of assumptions, go back and critically examine each assumption, and ask:
  • Why am I confident the assumption is correct?
  • In what circumstance might it be untrue?
  • Could it have been true in the past but no longer be true today?
  • How much confidence do I have that the assumption is valid?
  • If it turns out to be invalid, how much impact would this have on the analysis?
• Place each assumption in one of three categories:
  • Basically supported or solid.
  • Correct with some caveats.
  • Unsupported or questionable – these “key uncertainties.” Often merit additional attention.
• Refine the list, combining or refining some assumptions and
  adding new ones that emerge from the discussion.
• Consider whether to convert key uncertainties into intelligence
  collection requirements or research topics.

For more information about this and other SATs, click the link below to purchase Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (2nd Edition). This book features fifty-five structured analytic techniques – five new to this edition – that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Buy Now

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Meet Us at GEOINT 2015

June 22-25 || Walter E. Washington Convention Center

Will you be attending the GEOINT 2015 Symposium June 22-25?Make sure to visit Pherson Associates, our sister company, at Booth 4078!

Meet us in person to learn how our training courses, consulting, certificate programs, and publications can help you and your organization.

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

If you regularly depend on your intuition when making decisions, make sure to ask yourself: Are you biased?

The problem is, unless you occasionally go against your gut, you haven’t put your intuition to the test. You can’t really know it’s helping you make good choices if you’ve never seen what happens when you ignore it. 

May 2015 Harvard Business Review article: Outsmart Your Own Biases (Authors Soll, Milkman, and Payne)

As Richards J. Heuer and I explain in our book, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis — “Structured analytic techniques are debiasing techniques. They do not replace intuitive judgment. Their role is to question intuitive judgments by identifying a wider range of options for analysts to consider.”

The use of Structured Analytic Techniques is commonplace – Globalytica has been training analysts in the Law Enforcement, Homeland Security, and Intelligence Communities for over a decade.
Throughout the spring and summer, Analytic Insider will be sharing the most popular structured analytic techniques in use today, along with tips on using the techniques and resources for more information.

Structured Analytic Technique #1: Premortem Analysis and the Structured Self-Critique

The goal of Premortem Analysis and the Structured Self-Critique is to reduce the risk of surprise and the subsequent need for a postmortem investigation of what went wrong. It is an easy-to-use
technique that enables a group of analysts who have been working together on a paper or project to challenge effectively the accuracy of their conclusions or recommendations.

Thinking in this way has several benefits. First, it tempers optimism, encouraging a more realistic assessment of risk. Second, it helps you prepare backup plans and exit strategies. Third, it can highlight factors that will influence success or failure, which may increase your ability to control the results.

May 2015 Harvard Business Review article: Outsmart Your Own Biases (Authors Soll, Milkman, and Payne)

The value of the technique is that it legitimizes dissent by prompting analysts to reframe the issue. The process of asking questions about the same topic, but from a different perspective, opens new pathways in the brain. When stakeholders work together to identify weaknesses in their analysis, problems such as Premature Closure and Groupthink as well as potential interpersonal frictions are avoided. Team members who may have previously suppressed questions or doubts about the analysis are empowered to express previously hidden concerns. If this change in perspective is handled well, each team member will know they are adding value by participating in the process of criticizing the previous judgment, and then helping to correct any vulnerabilities.

The best time to conduct a Premortem Analysis is shortly after a group has reached a conclusion on an action plan, but before any serious drafting is done. The group leader makes a statement along the lines: “Okay, we now think we know the right answer, but we need to double-check this. To free up our minds to consider other possibilities, let’s imagine that we have made this judgment, our report has gone forward and been accepted, and now, x months or years later, we realize that our analysis was spectacularly wrong; things turned out very differently from what we had expected. Now, let’s put our imaginations to work and brainstorm what could have possibly happened to cause our analysis to be flawed.”

The first step is to organize a brainstorming session to explore what could have caused the analytic judgment to be so wrong. The next phase is to conduct a Structured Self-Critique by taking the team through an ordered set of questions. The group should consider, for example, if they have examined their key assumptions and have confidence in the validity of the evidence that justifies the key judgments. Other questions to ask are: Have you considered the presence of contradictory information; assessed the potential for deception; evaluated the completeness of the data; checked for the presence of common analytic pitfalls such as confirmation bias, “satisficing,” and historical analogy; and asked what impact the absence of information could have on the key judgments.

The team then lists any deficiencies they found and employs a tool or technique to address the new-found vulnerabilities, using techniques such as the Key Assumptions Check, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, or Deception Detection checklists.

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Analytic Tips & Insight

“The motivation for conducting a Premortem Analysis . . . is straightforward. Would you prefer to learn that you might be spectacularly wrong before your paper is edited or after it is published . . . ?”

Critical Thinking for Strategic Analysis, by Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson is available for purchase here.

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Don’t Miss Out on Your Chance to Anticipate the Future!

Globalytica is launching its newest professional certificate program, Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT), designed for professional analysts seeking to improve the quality and impact of their analysis in forecasting future events, using indicators to track emerging trends, and developing strategic plans.

Dates: June 2, 9 & 16 ( total of three 3½ hour session)

Location: Online Platform (TH!NK Live™-Globalytica’s avatar-based virtual training program)

Cost: $1,085

About the FSAT Course

This course introduces students to the Strategic Foresight Decision Tool, which includes five Structured Analytic Techniques (Foresight Quadrant Crunching™, Indicators, Indicators Validator®, Outside-In Brainstorming, and Opportunities Incubator), for developing alternative scenarios of how events will unfold. Students work through case studies and hands-on exercises to learn how best to apply the techniques and understand their strengths and weaknesses. Students will use the Indicators Validator® software. Students who pass a final exam receive a Professional Certificate in Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques.

Register

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

Space is Limited – Register Now

Early bird discount is available!

Anticipate the future! Globalytica is launching its newest professional certificate program, Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT), designed for professional analysts seeking to improve the quality and impact of their analysis in forecasting future events, using indicators to track emerging trends, and developing strategic plans.

Dates: May 26, June 2, 9 & 16 (Total of four 3-hour Sessions)

Location: Online Platform (TH!NK Live™-Globalytica’s avatar-based virtual training program)

Cost: $1,085

A 30% early bird discount is available to our members who register before April 17. Promo code – GLOBAL30

About the FSAT Course

This course introduces students to five structured analytic techniques (Mind Mapping, Key Drivers Generation, Foresight Quadrant Crunching™, Indicators, and Indicators Validator) for developing alternative scenarios of how events will unfold. In numerous hands-on exercises, students work through case studies to learn how best to apply the techniques and understand their strengths and weaknesses. Students will use the Indicators Validator™ software. Students who pass a final exam receive a Professional Certificate in Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques.

Read More

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Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

Spring is (finally) in the air – have you dusted the cobwebs off your analytic skills? To boost your mental  spring cleaning, this month I’m sharing my fifth and final Habit of a Master Thinker: Understand the Context.

Analysts often get so engaged in collecting and sorting data that they risk missing the forest for the trees. Learning to stop and reflect on the overarching context for the analysis is the last, and the most critical of the five habits.

Most analysis is done under considerable time pressure. The tendency is to plunge in as soon as a task is assigned. If the analyst does not take time to reflect on the customer’s needs, the resulting
analysis could prove inadequate, and much of the research done a waste of time. You are better off learning how to “think above your pay grade” by putting yourself in the shoes of management or the individual requesting the analysis at the start.

Ask yourself: “What do they need from me?” “How can I help them frame the issue?” and “Do I need to place their question in a broader context?” Failing to do this at the outset can easily result in the analyst going down blind alleys. Or worse, the analyst may have to reconceptualize an entire paper if a key assumption is found to be incorrect during coordination or editing.

Freeware and proprietary software have been developed to help analysts apply these techniques with rigor while saving time. The Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) developed a freeware version of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) under my and Richards J. Heuer’s guidance. Globalytica offers a collaborative, web-based version of ACH called Te@mACH®, which when combined with the Multiple Hypotheses Generator® and the Indicators Validator®, comprise TH!NK Suite®.

Globalytica is also developing two other tools, the Te@m Assumptions Check™ and Quadrant Crunching™, that guide analysts through the process of challenging their key assumptions and generating alternative scenarios. For more information about the software described above, click here.

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Space is Limited – Register Now

Early bird discount is available!

Anticipate the future! Globalytica is launching its newest professional
certificate program, Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT),
designed for professional analysts seeking to improve the quality and
impact of their analysis in forecasting future events, using indicators
to track emerging trends, and developing strategic plans.

Dates: June 2, 9 & 16 ( total of three 3½ hour sessions)

Location: Online (TH!NK Live™-Globalytica’s avatar-based virtual training platform)

Cost: $1,085

A 30% early bird discount is available to our members who register before April 17. Promo code – GLOBAL30

About the FSAT Course

This course introduces students to the Strategic Foresight Decision Tool, which includes five Structured Analytic Techniques (Foresight Quadrant Crunching™, Indicators, Indicators Validator®, Outside-In Brainstorming, and Opportunities Incubator), for developing alternative scenarios of how events will unfold. Students work through case studies and hands-on exercises to learn how best to apply the techniques and understand their strengths and weaknesses. Students will use the Indicators Validator® software. Students who pass a final exam receive a Professional Certificate in Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques.

Read More

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Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

The January and February editions of Analytic Insider highlighted the first three of the five Habits of a Master Thinker:

1. Know when to challenge key assumptions.
2. Consider alternative explanations or hypotheses for all events.
3. Look for inconsistent data that provides sufficient justification to quickly discard a candidate hypothesis.

Throughout the month of March, I encourage you to reflect on these good practices and try to incorporate them into your everyday work and life. Repetition will turn these techniques into habits, enabling you to be a Master Thinker. Next, try to adopt the fourth of our five habits . . .
Habit 4: Identify Key Drivers

The fourth of the five habits of the master thinker is asking at the outset what key drivers best explain what has occurred or will foretell what is about to happen. If the key drivers can be identified, the chances of surprise will be significantly decreased.

A practiced analyst should know how to vary the weights of these key drivers (either instinctively or by using such techniques as Multiple Scenarios Generation or Quadrant Crunching™) to generate a set of credible alternative scenarios that capture the range of possible outcomes. A Master Thinker will take this one step further, ensuring that he or she has generated a set of outcomes that represent both risks and opportunities for the policymaker.

Moreover, a Master Thinker will develop a list of indicators that satisfy the five characteristics of a good indicator:  Observable and Collectible, Valid, Reliable, Stable, and Unique. Uniqueness is often the most difficult criterion to satisfy and is best tested by using the Indicators Validator® or another validation system. For more information see Richards J. Heuer, Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd Edition, CQ Press: Washington, DC, 2011.

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Handbook of Analytical Tools & Techniques, 4th Edition

Are you looking to improve your analytic skills? Pherson Associates’ latest publication — Handbook of Analytic Tools & Techniques, 4th Edition, highlights 24 structured analytic techniques that will help you overcome mindsets, structure uncertainties, leverage your imagination, reduce the chance of surprise, and instill more rigor in your analysis.

The Handbook provides a definition of each technique, advice on when to use it, a description of how each technique adds value to the analysis, and a step-by-step description of the specific method involved.

It includes several new techniques, a list of cognitive biases and intuitive traps with definitions, and The Five Habits of the Master Thinker.

Buy Now

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Intelligence Communication in the Digital Era – How to Tell a Compelling Story Mary O’Sullivan

Many modern-day users of information have made the transition from the printed page to the web. Most consumers of intelligence products now access them electronically. This allows consumers to “pull” information which explains, defines, or depicts data that they are reading in a visual format.

Yet many producers still use static formats to create products which “push” analysis or raw intelligence to consumers. When planning a presentation, when and how should you incorporate graphics?

Modern-day drafters of any type of analysis – whether strategic, tactical, or even competitive business intelligence – must develop presentation tradecraft skills which focus on three elements:

• How an intelligence product looks – not just what it says but the images that help convey the meaning of the story.
• How a piece of intelligence comes to the user – where it fits in the continuous stream of information available.
• How a piece of intelligence “unfolds” – how the “story” is put together, which includes placement of maps, graphics, and text layout.

Pherson Associates has developed a two-day  Presentation Tradecraft workshop to teach students both how to think visually and how to use visual images as part of a product from the start of a project rather than as an afterthought. In this course, students will learn:

• The CREATE framework, which is the conceptual starting point for “user-driven” products.
• The “User Experience” concept, which includes such themes as navigability, memory retention, efficiency, and satisfaction, as the driving themes behind the design of a web-based or multi-media
  product.
• Storytelling to create a compelling narrative.
• Storyboarding as a design tool.

This course will be available in Fall 2015.

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Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

As winter weather sets in, it’s easy to enter into hibernation mode and abandon our New Year’s resolutions. While February’s cold restricts some of your outdoor activity, I encourage you to use this time to stay disciplined and exercise your brain. Last month, The Analytic Insider highlighted my first habit of a Master Thinker, Challenging Key Assumptions. I also offered some tips for applying this habit to your everyday life. Below are two more habits to use at work and in your personal life if you want to become a Master Thinker.

Habit 2: Consider Alternative Explanations When confronted with a new development, the first instinct of a good analyst is to develop a hypothesis to explain what has occurred based on the available evidence and logic. A master analyst goes one step further and immediately asks what alternative explanations might explain what is going on. While at first glance these alternatives may appear unlikely, over time as new evidence surfaces they could evolve into the lead hypothesis. Analysts who do not generate a set of alternative explanations at the start and lock on to a preferred explanation will often fall into the trap of confirmation bias-focusing on the data that is consistent with their explanation and ignoring or rejecting other data that is inconsistent and would  support an alternative explanation.

If envisioning an alternative explanation is difficult, then a master analyst will establish a null hypothesis, basically establishing in his or her own mind two hypotheses: X and Not X. The Not X hypothesis then becomes a bin in which to put what appears to be anomalous or outlier data that may at a later date might prove far more diagnostic. In some cases, consideration should be given to establishing a deception hypothesis. This is particularly valuable when there are questions about the reliability of the data, a lot of emotion surrounds the issue, or major information gaps exist.

Habit 3: Look for Inconsistent Data The habit of looking for inconsistent data is probably the hardest habit to master of the five, but it is the one that reaps the most benefits in terms of time saved when conducting an investigation or researching an issue. The best way to train your brain to look for inconsistent data is to conduct a series of ACH exercises. Such practice helps the analyst learn how to more readily identify what constitutes persuasive contrary evidence. A master analyst will have already generated a set of comprehensive and mutually exclusive hypotheses. If
she or he encounters an item of data that is inconsistent with one of the hypotheses in a compelling fashion (for example, a solid alibi), then that hypothesis can be quickly discarded, saving the analyst time by redirecting his or her attention to more likely solutions.

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Three New Case Studies Available from Globalytica

Do you see the value of using Structured Analytic Techniques, but you are not sure how to use them correctly? We have the solution for you!

Globalytica has just published three case studies on the murder of JonBenét Ramsey in Boulder, CO; the aluminum tubes fiasco in Iraq; and the fabricated intelligence reports regarding Niger selling yellowcake uranium to Iraq which resulted in the “outing” of CIA operative Valerie Plame.

Each ten-page case study is accompanied by a solution set that explains in great detail how to apply various structured techniques to that issue.

• Learn how to use Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and how to validate Indicators as you try to solve the JonBenét case.
• Build an Argument Map and perfect your ability to detect deception as you work your way through the Yellowcake case.
• Perfect your ability to challenge assumptions, and conduct a Premortem Analysis to see if you would have done better in responding to Vice President Cheney’s questions about Iraq WMD.

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‘Envision The Future’ With Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT)

Online Certificate Course

In May and June, we will offer a Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT) Professional Certificate  Course. This course is designed for both students and professional analysts seeking to improve the quality and impact of their analysis in developing forecasting future events, using indicators to track emerging trends, and developing strategic plans.

This four week certificate program is offered on TH!NK Live™- Globalytica’s avatar-based virtual training program.

For more information, click here.

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Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT)

Online Certificate Course

Globalytica’s second running of the popular Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT) certificate course began this week!

For more information, click here

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Certificate Program

Globalytica offers four Assessment-Based Analytic Certificate Courses designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills in government and private industry.

Questions?

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

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TH!NK Suite

TH!NK Suite® is a suite of powerful, streamlined, and collaborative webbased tools that analysts can use to employ structured analytic techniques effectively. TH!NK Suite® includes the  Multiple Hypotheses Generator™, Te@mACH®, and the Indicators Validator™.

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Globalytica Book Highlights 

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Discusses how fundamental limitations in human mental processes can prompt people to jump to conclusions and employ other simplifying strategies  that lead to predictably faulty judgments
known as cognitive biases.

Provides solutions to overcome these biases such as the use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses structured analytic techniques and more.

For a more in-depth understanding of Habit 2 (as referenced in article above – Exercising Your Brain With Master Thinker Habits), refer to page 308 of the publication.

Bad habits can be hard to break, but we all know it is important to overcome them. At the beginning of each year, many of us resolve to change our bad habits into good ones. In the spirit of New Year’s optimism, I encourage our readers to use this month to focus on Master Thinker Habit #1: Challenging Key Assumptions.

Recognizing and challenging one’s own assumptions is difficult. Analysts and their managers should strive to create an environment in which assumptions are identified and questioned on a daily basis. In a healthy  work environment, challenging assumptions should be commonplace, ranging from “Why do you assume we all want pepperoni pizza?” to “Won’t decreased oil prices force them to reconsider their export strategy?” If you expect your colleagues to challenge your assumptions on a regular basis, you will become more sensitive to when you actually are making assumptions, and you will increasingly ask yourself if they are well-founded.

If time allows, you should record your assumptions at a later date. Writing down the assumptions also greatly facilitates the process of examining them critically. Particular attention should be paid to assumptions that are assessed as unsupported because these often are key uncertainties that need to be researched or for which collection requirements need to be written.

Challenging your key assumptions on a regular basis will help you lay the groundwork to develop the second habit of a Master Thinker: Considering Alternative Explanations, which will be expanded upon in next month’s Analytic Insider.

For practical advice on challenging assumptions, refer to the article below, written by our methodologist, Mary Boardman, Ph. D.

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When You Assume Things…

Mary Boardman, PhD

Let’s face it. We all make assumptions. They are unavoidable. In an increasingly uncertain and complex world, these assumptions help us fill in the gaps and make sense of our  environment. However, this doesn’t mean we can’t do our best to assure that these assumptions are out in the open and well-understood. Specifically, you should do a Key Assumptions Check
before finalizing your conclusions.

A Key Assumptions Check is a simple, yet incredibly powerful technique to list and evaluate assumptions. Specifically, the first step in this technique is to list all the assumptions you or your group can think of. Since most assumptions are implicit and taken for granted, making these assumptions explicit is an incredibly useful activity in itself.

Once the assumptions are listed, go through each one and assess if it is supported, supported with caveats, or unsupported. It may appear that unsupported assumptions are not desirable, but these unsupported assumptions may actually be key uncertainties. Part of the power and utility of this technique is its ability to take implicit, but unsupported, assumptions and transform
them into explicit key uncertainties.

Assumptions are unavoidable, but making them explicit is helpful. We get a better sense of what we are assuming, why we are making that assumption, and the level to which it is justified. We also get a better sense of the level of uncertainty being faced in a situation. This technique is useful within a professional and analytic context-in fact, in almost any context. Assumptions come into play when making any decision, such as whether to buy a house, accept a job offer, or take your car for repairs. A Key Assumptions Check is helpful both in and out of the office.

Just as we do not make or analyze assumptions in a vacuum, a Key Assumptions Check is most useful when combined with other techniques. To hone these skills and learn other techniques, we invite you to register for our Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT) course on February 3, 10, 17, March 3 (a total of four 3-hour sessions). Be sure to reserve your space, the course is
filling up fast!

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Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

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TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

As leaders in the field of analytic techniques for the US Intelligence Community, Kathy and Randy Pherson are leveraging their expertise from running a successful government contracting business, Pherson Associates, to providing these capabilities to private industry, foreign governments, and academic institutions operating around the world through their new company, Globalytica, LLC.

Globalytica trains analysts, managers, and companies worldwide in rigorous analytic processes, accurate analysis, and insightful techniques of discovery for optimal decision making and solutions. The company has three core business areas: Intelligence Services, Security, and Business Analytics.

“The knowledge base and experience of our two distinct companies enable us to build customized training platforms and programs that meet the unique needs of our customers. We help organizations integrate analytics into their strategic planning and decision making processes,” said Randy Pherson, President of Pherson Associates and CEO of Globalytica.

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Are You a Master Thinker?
Randy Pherson, CEO Globalytica

When I hear analysts observe that they do not have time to use Structured Analytic Techniques, my response is to challenge them to develop these five habits of thinking when they are not rushing to meet a deadline. A little time spent practicing how to use some core structured techniques will train you to use them instinctively when time is short. Incorporating these Master Thinker habits
into your everyday thought processes will increase your impact and save you valuable time.

A good analytic thinker who has mastered the core structured analytic techniques will instinctively:

1. Know when to challenge key assumptions – usually  far more often than you think!
2. Consider alternative explanations or hypothesis for all.
3. Look for inconsistent data that provides sufficient justification to quickly discard a candidate hypothesis.
4. Focus on the key drivers that best explain what has occurred or what is about to happen.
5. Anticipate the customers’ needs and understand the overarching context within which the analysis is being done.

Do you already use one (or more) of these techniques? Then congratulate yourself! Most analysts have yet to learn how to internalize all five habits. Learning how to do so takes a determined effort, but can be accomplished within a reasonable period of time.

The next few editions of The Analytic Insider will focus on the five habits of the Master Thinker, including tips on practicing using the techniques at work and at home. With every repetition, these concepts will become habits that are ingrained and instinctive, leading to better analysis produced in a shorter period of time.

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Back by Popular Demand – Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT)

Online Certificate Course

Experience analytic tools and techniques. Question preconceived notions. Identify the dynamics of an issue or problem. Learn how to re-frame questions to get better answers. Test your hypotheses. Refine your thinking. Explain the outcome to your boss, or co-worker.

These techniques, developed and taught by former intelligence officers, uncover information gaps and inform future choices. Students can take a final exam to receive a Certificate in Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques.

SOLD OUT – December 2, 4, 9, 16 (Total of four 3-hour sessions)

February 17, 19, 23, 25 (Total of four 3-hour sessions)

Registration Link

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Certificate Program

Globalytica offers four Assessment-Based Analytic Certificate Courses designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills in government and private industry.

Questions?

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900