A Time for Reflection

The January and February editions of Analytic Insider highlighted the first three of the five Habits of a Master Thinker:

  1. Know when to challenge key assumptions.
  2. Consider alternative explanations or hypotheses for all events.
  3. Look for inconsistent data that provides sufficient justification to quickly discard a candidate hypothesis.

Throughout the month of March, I encourage you to reflect on these good practices and try to incorporate them into your everyday work and life. Repetition will turn these techniques into habits, enabling you to be a Master Thinker. Next, try to adopt the fourth of our five habits . . .
Habit 4: Identify Key Drivers

The fourth of the five habits of the master thinker is asking at the outset what key drivers best explain what has occurred or will foretell what is about to happen. If the key drivers can be identified, the chances of surprise will be significantly decreased.

A practiced analyst should know how to vary the weights of these key drivers (either instinctively or by using such techniques as Multiple Scenarios Generation or Quadrant Crunching™) to generate a set of credible alternative scenarios that capture the range of possible outcomes. A Master Thinker will take this one step further, ensuring that he or she has generated a set of outcomes that represent both risks and opportunities for the policymaker.

Moreover, a Master Thinker will develop a list of indicators that satisfy the five characteristics of a good indicator:  Observable and Collectible, Valid, Reliable, Stable, and Unique. Uniqueness is often the most difficult criterion to satisfy and is best tested by using the Indicators Validator® or another validation system. For more information see Richards J. Heuer, Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd Edition, CQ Press: Washington, DC, 2011.

Handbook of Analytical Tools & Techniques, 4th Edition

Are you looking to improve your analytic skills? Pherson Associates’ latest publication — Handbook of Analytic Tools & Techniques, 4th Edition, highlights 24 structured analytic techniques that will help you overcome mindsets, structure uncertainties, leverage your imagination, reduce the chance of surprise, and instill more rigor in your analysis.

The Handbook provides a definition of each technique, advice on when to use it, a description of how each technique adds value to the analysis, and a step-by-step description of the specific method involved.

It includes several new techniques, a list of cognitive biases and intuitive traps with definitions, and The Five Habits of the Master Thinker.

Buy Now

Intelligence Communication in the Digital Era – How to Tell a Compelling Story Mary O’Sullivan

Many modern-day users of information have made the transition from the printed page to the web. Most consumers of intelligence products now access them electronically. This allows consumers to “pull” information which explains, defines, or depicts data that they are reading in a visual format.

Yet many producers still use static formats to create products which “push” analysis or raw intelligence to consumers. When planning a presentation, when and how should you incorporate graphics?

Modern-day drafters of any type of analysis – whether strategic, tactical, or even competitive business intelligence – must develop presentation tradecraft skills which focus on three elements:

  • How an intelligence product looks – not just what it says but the images that help convey the meaning of the story.
  • How a piece of intelligence comes to the user – where it fits in the continuous stream of information available.
  • How a piece of intelligence “unfolds” – how the “story” is put together, which includes placement of maps, graphics, and text layout.

Pherson Associates has developed a two-day  Presentation Tradecraft workshop to teach students both how to think visually and how to use visual images as part of a product from the start of a project rather than as an afterthought. In this course, students will learn:

  • The CREATE framework, which is the conceptual starting point for “user-driven” products.
  • The “User Experience” concept, which includes such themes as navigability, memory retention, efficiency, and satisfaction, as the driving themes behind the design of a web-based or multi-media
    product.
  • Storytelling to create a compelling narrative.
  • Storyboarding as a design tool.

This course will be available in Fall 2015.

Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

Exercising Your Brain with Master Thinker Habits #2 and #3

As winter weather sets in, it’s easy to enter into hibernation mode and abandon our New Year’s resolutions. While February’s cold restricts some of your outdoor activity, I encourage you to use this time to stay disciplined and exercise your brain. Last month, The Analytic Insider highlighted my first habit of a Master Thinker, Challenging Key Assumptions. I also offered some tips for applying this habit to your everyday life. Below are two more habits to use at work and in your personal life if you want to become a Master Thinker.

Habit 2: Consider Alternative Explanations When confronted with a new development, the first instinct of a good analyst is to develop a hypothesis to explain what has occurred based on the available evidence and logic. A master analyst goes one step further and immediately asks what alternative explanations might explain what is going on. While at first glance these alternatives may appear unlikely, over time as new evidence surfaces they could evolve into the lead hypothesis. Analysts who do not generate a set of alternative explanations at the start and lock on to a preferred explanation will often fall into the trap of confirmation bias-focusing on the data that is consistent with their explanation and ignoring or rejecting other data that is inconsistent and would  support an alternative explanation.

If envisioning an alternative explanation is difficult, then a master analyst will establish a null hypothesis, basically establishing in his or her own mind two hypotheses: X and Not X. The Not X hypothesis then becomes a bin in which to put what appears to be anomalous or outlier data that may at a later date might prove far more diagnostic. In some cases, consideration should be given to establishing a deception hypothesis. This is particularly valuable when there are questions about the reliability of the data, a lot of emotion surrounds the issue, or major information gaps exist.

Habit 3: Look for Inconsistent Data The habit of looking for inconsistent data is probably the hardest habit to master of the five, but it is the one that reaps the most benefits in terms of time saved when conducting an investigation or researching an issue. The best way to train your brain to look for inconsistent data is to conduct a series of ACH exercises. Such practice helps the analyst learn how to more readily identify what constitutes persuasive contrary evidence. A master analyst will have already generated a set of comprehensive and mutually exclusive hypotheses. If
she or he encounters an item of data that is inconsistent with one of the hypotheses in a compelling fashion (for example, a solid alibi), then that hypothesis can be quickly discarded, saving the analyst time by redirecting his or her attention to more likely solutions.

Three New Case Studies Available from Globalytica

Do you see the value of using Structured Analytic Techniques, but you are not sure how to use them correctly? We have the solution for you!

Globalytica has just published three case studies on the murder of JonBenét Ramsey in Boulder, CO; the aluminum tubes fiasco in Iraq; and the fabricated intelligence reports regarding Niger selling yellowcake uranium to Iraq which resulted in the “outing” of CIA operative Valerie Plame.

Each ten-page case study is accompanied by a solution set that explains in great detail how to apply various structured techniques to that issue.

  • Learn how to use Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and how to validate Indicators as you try to solve the JonBenét case.
  • Build an Argument Map and perfect your ability to detect deception as you work your way through the Yellowcake case.
  • Perfect your ability to challenge assumptions, and conduct a Premortem Analysis to see if you would have done better in responding to Vice President Cheney’s questions about Iraq WMD.

‘Envision The Future’ With Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT)

Online Certificate Course

In May and June, we will offer a Foresight Structured Analytic Techniques (FSAT) Professional Certificate  Course. This course is designed for both students and professional analysts seeking to improve the quality and impact of their analysis in developing forecasting future events, using indicators to track emerging trends, and developing strategic plans.

This four week certificate program is offered on TH!NK Live™- Globalytica’s avatar-based virtual training program.

For more information, click here.

Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT)

Online Certificate Course

Globalytica’s second running of the popular Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT) certificate course began this week!

For more information, click here

Certificate Program

Globalytica offers four Assessment-Based Analytic Certificate Courses designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills in government and private industry.

Questions?

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

TH!NK Suite

TH!NK Suite® is a suite of powerful, streamlined, and collaborative webbased tools that analysts can use to employ structured analytic techniques effectively. TH!NK Suite® includes the  Multiple Hypotheses Generator™, Te@mACH®, and the Indicators Validator™.

Globalytica Book Highlights 

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Discusses how fundamental limitations in human mental processes can prompt people to jump to conclusions and employ other simplifying strategies  that lead to predictably faulty judgments
known as cognitive biases.

Provides solutions to overcome these biases such as the use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses structured analytic techniques and more.

For a more in-depth understanding of Habit 2 (as referenced in article above – Exercising Your Brain With Master Thinker Habits), refer to page 308 of the publication.

New Year’s Resolution – Take the First Step in Becoming a Master Thinker

Bad habits can be hard to break, but we all know it is important to overcome them. At the beginning of each year, many of us resolve to change our bad habits into good ones. In the spirit of New Year’s optimism, I encourage our readers to use this month to focus on Master Thinker Habit #1: Challenging Key Assumptions.

Recognizing and challenging one’s own assumptions is difficult. Analysts and their managers should strive to create an environment in which assumptions are identified and questioned on a daily basis. In a healthy  work environment, challenging assumptions should be commonplace, ranging from “Why do you assume we all want pepperoni pizza?” to “Won’t decreased oil prices force them to reconsider their export strategy?” If you expect your colleagues to challenge your assumptions on a regular basis, you will become more sensitive to when you actually are making assumptions, and you will increasingly ask yourself if they are well-founded.

If time allows, you should record your assumptions at a later date. Writing down the assumptions also greatly facilitates the process of examining them critically. Particular attention should be paid to assumptions that are assessed as unsupported because these often are key uncertainties that need to be researched or for which collection requirements need to be written.

Challenging your key assumptions on a regular basis will help you lay the groundwork to develop the second habit of a Master Thinker: Considering Alternative Explanations, which will be expanded upon in next month’s Analytic Insider.

For practical advice on challenging assumptions, refer to the article below, written by our methodologist, Mary Boardman, Ph. D.

When You Assume Things…

Mary Boardman, PhD

Let’s face it. We all make assumptions. They are unavoidable. In an increasingly uncertain and complex world, these assumptions help us fill in the gaps and make sense of our  environment. However, this doesn’t mean we can’t do our best to assure that these assumptions are out in the open and well-understood. Specifically, you should do a Key Assumptions Check
before finalizing your conclusions.

A Key Assumptions Check is a simple, yet incredibly powerful technique to list and evaluate assumptions. Specifically, the first step in this technique is to list all the assumptions you or your group can think of. Since most assumptions are implicit and taken for granted, making these assumptions explicit is an incredibly useful activity in itself.

Once the assumptions are listed, go through each one and assess if it is supported, supported with caveats, or unsupported. It may appear that unsupported assumptions are not desirable, but these unsupported assumptions may actually be key uncertainties. Part of the power and utility of this technique is its ability to take implicit, but unsupported, assumptions and transform
them into explicit key uncertainties.

Assumptions are unavoidable, but making them explicit is helpful. We get a better sense of what we are assuming, why we are making that assumption, and the level to which it is justified. We also get a better sense of the level of uncertainty being faced in a situation. This technique is useful within a professional and analytic context-in fact, in almost any context. Assumptions come into play when making any decision, such as whether to buy a house, accept a job offer, or take your car for repairs. A Key Assumptions Check is helpful both in and out of the office.

Just as we do not make or analyze assumptions in a vacuum, a Key Assumptions Check is most useful when combined with other techniques. To hone these skills and learn other techniques, we invite you to register for our Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT) course on February 3, 10, 17, March 3 (a total of four 3-hour sessions). Be sure to reserve your space, the course is
filling up fast!

Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more

Pherson Associates and Globalytica Target Two Distinct Markets to Meet Growing Demand for Analysts

As leaders in the field of analytic techniques for the US Intelligence Community, Kathy and Randy Pherson are leveraging their expertise from running a successful government contracting business, Pherson Associates, to providing these capabilities to private industry, foreign governments, and academic institutions operating around the world through their new company, Globalytica, LLC.

Globalytica trains analysts, managers, and companies worldwide in rigorous analytic processes, accurate analysis, and insightful techniques of discovery for optimal decision making and solutions. The company has three core business areas: Intelligence Services, Security, and Business Analytics.

“The knowledge base and experience of our two distinct companies enable us to build customized training platforms and programs that meet the unique needs of our customers. We help organizations integrate analytics into their strategic planning and decision making processes,” said Randy Pherson, President of Pherson Associates and CEO of Globalytica.

Are You a Master Thinker?
Randy Pherson, CEO Globalytica

When I hear analysts observe that they do not have time to use Structured Analytic Techniques, my response is to challenge them to develop these five habits of thinking when they are not rushing to meet a deadline. A little time spent practicing how to use some core structured techniques will train you to use them instinctively when time is short. Incorporating these Master Thinker habits
into your everyday thought processes will increase your impact and save you valuable time.

A good analytic thinker who has mastered the core structured analytic techniques will instinctively:

  1. Know when to challenge key assumptions – usually  far more often than you think!
  2. Consider alternative explanations or hypothesis for all.
  3. Look for inconsistent data that provides sufficient justification to quickly discard a candidate hypothesis.
  4. Focus on the key drivers that best explain what has occurred or what is about to happen.
  5. Anticipate the customers’ needs and understand the overarching context within which the analysis is being done.

Do you already use one (or more) of these techniques? Then congratulate yourself! Most analysts have yet to learn how to internalize all five habits. Learning how to do so takes a determined effort, but can be accomplished within a reasonable period of time.

The next few editions of The Analytic Insider will focus on the five habits of the Master Thinker, including tips on practicing using the techniques at work and at home. With every repetition, these concepts will become habits that are ingrained and instinctive, leading to better analysis produced in a shorter period of time.

Back by Popular Demand – Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT)

Online Certificate Course

Experience analytic tools and techniques. Question preconceived notions. Identify the dynamics of an issue or problem. Learn how to re-frame questions to get better answers. Test your hypotheses. Refine your thinking. Explain the outcome to your boss, or co-worker.

These techniques, developed and taught by former intelligence officers, uncover information gaps and inform future choices. Students can take a final exam to receive a Certificate in Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques.

SOLD OUT – December 2, 4, 9, 16 (Total of four 3-hour sessions)

February 17, 19, 23, 25 (Total of four 3-hour sessions)

Registration Link

Certificate Program

Globalytica offers four Assessment-Based Analytic Certificate Courses designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills in government and private industry.

Questions?

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

The New Age of Analytics

Dear Globalytica Customer,

Welcome to the first edition of The Analytic Insider. We created this newsletter as an authoritative source of information in the world of analytics for both analysts and non-analysts.

Each month we will feature a blog written by a Globalytica associate about current trends and topics, and will share educational articles. Our dedicated team of professional analysts has more than 30 years’ experience creating and providing instruction in the field of analytics. In addition, you will receive updates and exclusive offers about future Globalytica training courses and events with links for easy registration.

Your professional growth is our number one priority. We welcome your input and suggestions and hope you will visit the comments section to share your feedback. Please feel free to share this newsletter with co-workers, peers, and others. If at any point you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, just click the unsubscribe link located at the bottom of each edition.

Yours in partnership,

The Globalytica Team.

The New Age of Analytics

by: Randy Pherson, CEO Globalytica

Recent news headlines about the role of big data in marketing and finance-and even in finding a possible cure for Ebola-have shed new light on the growing field of analytics. Experts estimate that the amount of data available today would circle the earth six times, and the data universe continues to expand at an astronomical rate. As our insatiable need for information grows, this new frontier of big data opens many doors and possibilities. But can big data, by itself, solve the world’s problems? Or should it be paired with structured  analytic techniques to frame the questions, mine the output, and make sense of the answers?

This New Age of Analytics requires organizations to reevaluate the true purpose and meaning of data analysis. Consider big data as a river that flows through every department of an organization. Understanding how to harness and exploit the power of this river can lead to identifying and discovering patterns, trends, and insights to make better decisions leading to increased revenues and productivity.

But big data is just bits and bytes without skilled analysts to frame the query and interpret the output. Techniques such as Starbursting and Venn Analysis can help you get started, Analysis of Competing Hypothesis can help you focus on the most diagnostic evidence, and Argument Mapping can help you construct a compelling case. The analyst’s role entails a structured approach, collaboration within the organization, and sound decision making. This New Age of Analytics requires the pairing of big data with rigorous analytic processes. These processes place the issue in context, identify the key questions, and package the results of big data queries. This helps leaders optimize decision making and support robust strategic planning.

Register Today For Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques (DSAT)

Online Training Course

Course Dates: December 2, 4, 9, 11

Register before November 21 to Receive a 50% Discount

Experience analytic tools and techniques. Question preconceived notions. Identify the dynamics of an issue or problem. Learn how to re-frame questions to get better answers. Test your  hypotheses. Refine your thinking. Explain the outcome to your boss, or coworker. These techniques, developed and taught by former intelligence officers, uncover information gaps and inform future choices. Students can take a final exam to receive a Certificate in Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques.

Duration: Four 3-hr evening sessions

Registration Link

Certificate Program

Our certificate courses are designed to improve the quality of analytic and critical thinking skills.

Questions? 

think@globalytica.com

(703) 390-9900

TH!NK Suite®

Enhance the Impact of Your Analysis.

Our collaborative webbased tools help analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques effectively. They can be used routinely making the analysis more rigorous while saving time.

Learn more